5 min readPredict the price of Bitcoin with Twitter and Tweet Binder

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Bitcoin, what you can’t miss

Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto and released in 2009 and now is the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization with more than 142 billion dollars and everyday there are news about BTC that made for example increase its value 2000% in 2017 to reach the maximum of $20089 in December.

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Bitcoin chart from CoinMarketCap

People are interested in predicting when will be the next bull race or know when the market is going to be bearish. Is this possible? You can study all the candlestick graphs using patterns such as three line strike, two black gapping,… Or technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands.

This could make you crazy if you are doing daily trading or you could use an external bot that could read all this data for you and then trust that the bot will buy or sell in optimal peaks without losing your money.

Price prediction and manipulation

Researchers at Southern Methodist University wrote a paper named Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Using Tweet Volumes and Sentiment Analysis that concludes:

“We identify the correlations that exist between Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and Google Trends data.”

This statement is important but now there’s a more important question: can crypto influencers manipulate price with their tweets and pump/dump the prices? Absolutely yes. In the article Tron Justin Sun tries to manipulate TRX price with this tweet, price pumps immediately, they show that after Tron’s founder sent a tweet about Tron and BitTorrent’s projects in a way of marketing tactic for creating hype and immediately the price of Tron went green and grew 2.2% while the market was completely bearish.

Nowadays we are always connected to information and to social networks. All this information that we cannot collect is being sent to the internet and maybe if we were able to read the important news in the right moment we could predict how the market is going to move in the next minutes providing us an incredible gain.

Tweet Binder, the tool you need

In this article we are going to talk about Twitter and analyzing the tweets with a powerful tool called Tweet Binder. Why are we choosing Twitter? It’s one of the most important social networks that was launched in 2006. It allows users to post messages publicly with a maximum length of 280 characters using hashtags to make the messages searchable and useful to collect data. The data can be divided in two different parts: amount of tweets in precise moments and sentiment analysis of the tweets.

With Tweet Binder we are going to be able to see both situations. For example, the amount of tweets are accesible through a timeline that accurately can show that important changes in Twitter conversations about a cryptocurrency could be followed by a bullish market.

Tweet Binder also analyzes the sentiment of the tweets with an optimized algorithm and trained corpus to give a value to each tweet and give the trend of the messages and market.

You will be thinking that is easy to see all these data after a big spike of Bitcoin but you need to do it in realtime to buy or sell before it’s too late.

Bitcoin bull run explained

The bull run started the 2nd of May that BTC’s value went up 10% in 24 hours.

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Bitcoin chart from CoinMarketinCap

In the same graph we can see that the price stayed stable for several days after. We need to see what happened in Twitter. Let’s create a report in Tweet Binder.

tweet binder bitcon report
Bitcoin bull run analysis by Tweet Binder

We can see that the tweet amount was high during the bull run and went down drastically when it finished and kept BTC price stable. Is it important the number of tweets sent? Yes, but not only. The quality of the tweets and the profiles that sent them are the most important things to check.

Tweet Binder users ranking for Bitcoin

A very significant verified profile (@PeterLBrandt) with more than 270k followers, known as a great crypto trader, tweeted some tweets and received a massive number of retweets and likes. This user was talking about the BTC price that he expected to rise until June.

Peter Brandt prediction
Peter Brand tweet prediction for bitcoin

As we can see his prediction was correct. Did he predict correctly or influenced the market?

On the other side, we need to investigate the sentiment of the tweets sent on this interval. The sentiment score that Tweet Binder gives is 76.1 out of 100. This represents that the report is quite positive. Normally, other websites that talk about sentiment do this incorrectly because they only compare the number of positive respect the sum of positive and negative tweets. Tweet Binder’s formula is more precise because we introduce other important variable like number of users and impacts and count the neutral tweets also.

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Tweet Binder sentiment data for bitcoin

In the sentiment stats we can also see the sentiment timeline. It reflects the sentiment in relation to the time that those tweets were sent.

tweet binder sentiment timeline
Tweet Binder’s sentiment timeline for bitcoin

Twitter User Tracker

What about crypto influencers? It would be wise to follow important Twitter accounts. Maybe with their tweets we could predict market fluctuation or intentional pump/dumps with fake or not precise news.

Tweet Binder has been working hard for more than 6 months developing one of the most efficient user trackers and its name is: Twitter User Tracker (TUT). We have talked about it in a previous post. If you haven’t heard about it you could go and check Tracking users on Twitter.

We misunderstand who is an influencer. We don’t only have to see the number of followers, we also need to take into account the following, the economic market value and the most important one is the economic engagement value. Tweet Binder has introduced maybe the most important field that gives the real value for a user. We use an incredible algorithm that has been presented in a research paper explaining how we reach this value.

In the TUT’s dashboard we are able to see the timeline, gain and losses of several metrics such as: followers, following, ratio Followers/Following, retweets and likes received, … And everything is on a table for comparing a user with the other opponents.

Crypto influencers

Now you should decide which influencers to follow and compare with TUT. That depends on your assets or crypto savings.

  • CZ Binance: Changpeng Zao is the Founder and CEO of Binance, a exchange that moves more than $3 Billion.
  • Justin Sun: is a Chinese entrepreneur and the founder of the cryptocurrency TRON or TRX, that first was an ERC-20 token and then launched their self mainnet.
  • John McAfee: is an important developer, businessman and founder of the antivirus company. He is known for commenting important and promising crypto projects.
  • Charlie Lee: is a computer science and creator of Litecoin (LTC). Known also for dumping his own cryptocurrency saying that he already sold nearly all of his assets in LTC.
  • Jackson Palmer: is a computer programmer, writer and founder of Dogecoin (DOGE), one of the most important stable coins in the actual market.
  • Star Xu: CEO and founder of OKCoin that raised more than $10 Million in investment. Xu was suspected of fraud. Investors accused him.

If you want to stay tuned continue reading our blog posts, enter in Tweet Binder and try it out.

Access Tweet Binder now!